Last week I was at the Evolution 2012 meeting in Ottawa. A
joint meeting of five evolution and ecology societies, it was the largest
collection of evolutionary biologists (plus some ecologists) ever assembled in
a single place. It was an incredibly dynamic and exciting meeting with tons of
opportunity for discussion and argument lubricated with appropriate – if expensive
– beverages. Two presentations in particular, keynote addresses of a sort,
stimulated a series of arguments that led to the reflections contained in this
post.
UBC biologist Rosie Redfield gave a public outreach talk
that detailed the debacle surrounding a paper published in Science where a
bunch of NASA scientists claimed to have found bacteria that could construct
their DNA backbone with arsenate rather than phosphorous. If true, this would
have incredible implications for our understanding of life on earth and beyond.
Rosie had read this paper and written in her research blog (
http://rrresearch.fieldofscience.com/)
about how horrible it was – stated simply, the work was far from providing the standard
of evidence necessary for the inferences it was attempting to make. Rosie
quickly became a scientific icon of the blogosphere for her withering
criticisms of the paper. Rosie then redid the studies with the proper standards
and showed that the original result didn’t hold – all organisms do in the end probably
use phosphorus. Rosie’s paper was also published in Science – and it appeared
online precisely in the middle of her talk, which was not a coincidence. It has been said that “negative reviews often give
a frisson of pleasure the reader” (Houle 1998 - Evolution) and so do negative
talks to the listener – at least to many of them.
The other “keynote” I want to mention was the performance by
Baba Brinkman of his “Rap Guide to Evolution.” I had known of, and greatly
appreciated, this work of science/art/poetry/music for a few years but this was
the first time I had seen it in person. In addition to giving great
performances of some of the work I already knew of, he had some new – and equally
hilarious and insightful – stuff (
Don’t
Sleep with Mean People was a highlight). Everyone should hear and see Baba’s
work:
http://www.bababrinkman.com/.
Coincidentally, I happened to run into Baba during one of the mixers and also
at bars on two other nights, which formed the second inspiration for this blog
about standards of evidence.
|
Baba dropping an evolutionary rap anthem. |
Baba’s work summarizes in entertaining and generally correct
form many of the basic underpinnings – and also unique nuances – of evolutionary
biology. He also strays into evolutionary psychology. Although prefacing his
dialog with a disclaimer that much of the field might well be bunk, he is
clearly a fan – even if only because of how it makes one think about human
behavior. His favorite example is the correlation
among human communities between mortality rates and teen pregnancy rates (and
other things). He explains in a rapid rap flow the hypothesis of Daly and
Wilson (1988) about how it makes evolutionary sense to reproduce early if your
mate is likely to die soon. In short, teen pregnancy might be an adaptive
reproductive strategy (or tactic) in response to high-risk situations. The
graph relating mortality rates (x-axis) to teen pregnancy (y-axis) is extremely
strong; indeed, it would be the envy of most empirical evolutionary biologists
working on any organism. But (to continue the point of my previous post on
Faith’s Conjecture:
http://ecoevoevoeco.blogspot.ca/2012/07/faiths-conjecture.html)
how can we be sure this is a causal relationship. Perhaps high teen pregnancy
rates (x-axis) lead to fathers adopting riskier and more aggressive strategies
that increase mortality rates (y-axis). Or maybe both phenomena are
independently driven by some external factor. What standard of evidence would
be necessary to make this conclusion with surety?
In my conversation with Baba, he argued that work on humans
should be held to the same standard of evidence as work on other organisms.
With other organisms, however, we would perform experiments. We would alter
mortality rates and see if it changed the age of reproduction. Indeed just such
experiments have been done: when guppies are introduced from high-mortality
environments to low-mortality environments they evolve delayed reproduction
(and vice versa). But we can’t do this sort of controlled experiment with
humans, of course. So we clearly can’t hold work on humans to the same standard
of evidence – but we should push as far as possible. Or should we?
In 1999, I was in the audience for a symposium called “Darwinian
Evolution Across Disciplines” held at Dartmouth College. A collection of
speakers from a variety of disciplines (religious studies, anthropology, medicine,
etc.) spoke about how evolutionary thinking had influenced their disciplines. (The
representative real evolutionary biologist, Dick Lewontin, spoke about cosmic
evolution – go figure.) At the end of the symposium, all of the speakers lined
up their chairs at the front of the room and the audience was allowed to ask
questions. My question started with the preface that evolutionary biologists were
heavily criticized (by Dick) for telling “just so stories” to explain the adaptive
significance of trait variation. (That is, inferences weren’t based on an
appropriate standard of evidence.) I then noted out loud that it seemed like
most of these other disciplines were still in the “just so” phase, and I asked
what the prospects were for transitioning into the rigorous hypothesis testing now
employed in evolutionary biology. A few speakers gave some comments and then
one of them turned to Dick, who had not yet spoken, and asked something like “What
do you think Dick?” After pausing for effect, he turned to face all of the
other speakers and said something like “I don’t think that any of you know how
evolutionary biology works.” And then he went on to disparage their fields for
a few minutes before turning to me and saying that he still felt evolutionary
biology was in the “just so” phase. Then he walked out. Frisson! (A video
exists of Dick chastise us [although I can’t seem to access it right now]:
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~dead99/Disc/Disc.htm.
)
The lesson I think we should take from all this arguing and
frissing is that we should push evolutionary psychologists to base their
inference on the highest possible standard of evidence THAT IS APPROPRIATE FOR
WHAT IS POSSIBLE. That is, we simply can’t perform evolutionary experiments on
humans. We need to find some happy point between Baba Brinkman and Dick
Lewontin – probably a lot closer to the former than the latter.
And, of course, we should strive for exactly the same thing in
evolutionary biology in general: the highest possible standard of evidence. But
striving is different from achieving, and so it is reasonable to ask should we
also HOLD evolutionary biologists to those standards – by, for example, blocking
the publication of studies that don’t perform manipulative experiments in
nature or that don’t use the latest genetic methodologies? I don’t think so.
First, incredible inequities exist in the manipulability and genetic resources
for different taxa. We simply can’t expect people who work on mosquitofish and walkingsticks
to deploy the same genetic tools as people who work on flies or mice or
stickleback or humans. And we can’t expect people who work on elephants or
hippos or albatrosses or humans to perform the manipulative evolutionary
experiments typical of flies and mice and bacteria. This doesn’t mean that we
should all work on those “ideal” model systems – we really do need to study the
full pageantry of life. The solution then must be to hold work on a given taxon
to the highest possible standards for that taxon – standards must be scaled to
taxa.
Or is that really the case? Can we really expect everyone who
works stickleback to fully sequence all the individuals in their study
populations? Can we really expect everyone who works on guppies to perform
manipulative evolutionary experiments? Clearly not, as the resources and opportunities
to do so are out of reach of most people working even on these groups. Thus, we
can’t apply a particular standard of evidence to all papers from a given
taxonomic group – even in Science and Nature! Otherwise, we are always chasing
the latest technology or the most money or the biggest collaborations – and we
are saying, in essence, that work published just a few years earlier would not
be worth publishing in the same form today. This is nonsense. The major
advances in evolutionary biology were ideas – and ideas are what stand the test
of time (V!). So I would encourage all of us, whether acting as authors or
reviewers or editors or bloggers or rappers to strive for the highest possible
standards of evidence in our own work while also judging the work of others
according to what is reasonable and possible for them – and to what extent
their ideas are interesting and stimulating. (Just think how much less exciting
the last year would have been without those NASA scientists.) We need to find some
happy place between Baba Brinkman and Dick Lewontin.
|
Baba, Mr. Simmonds, and Hendry lab graduates Xavier (far left) and Erika (far right) |